College Week 12 Projections

Well. it is another FOOTBALL SATURDAY in the BLUEGRASS!!! Kentucky hopes to continue their offensive progress they showed last week and obtain a better bowl bid with a win today against Vanderbilt. The Dores have lost 4 straight and are in dire need of a win themselves to get to bowl eligibility for the first time in 26 years. The weather is projected to be ugly with rain, wind, and possible snow flurries in the forecast. Should be a good one!

Here are the COLLEGE PICKS for Week 12---

Last Week: 9-4 (1/2 on UPSET SPECIALS!)

Overall 50-34

ACC- North Carolina o Maryland

Big East- South Florida o Rutgers

Big 12- Texas o Kansas

Big 10- Northwestern o Michigan

Pac 10- Cal o Oregon State

UPSET SPECIAL

1) Washington o UCLA

SEC PREDICTIONS---

1) Florida o South Carolina- The Gators are on a mission and will not be averted by a team that has quarterback struggles…Welcome back agains Steve Spurrier. Remember when you used to run up the score in the south, now Urban Meyer is doing the SAME thing at Florida…Florida

2) Georgia o Auburn- Georgia’s defense is suspect, BUT Auburn’s offense is just not good enough…Georgia wins…Georgia

3) Alabama o Mississippi State- This game should be close, but Mississippi State has really had a down year and therefore aren’t likely to pull any type of upset….Alabama

4) LSU o Troy- A non-SEC game, well this should be easy for the Tigers…LSU

5) Mississippi o UL-Monroe- Another NON-SEC game…Rebels win and tune up for their next two…Mississippi

Kentucky loses opener

NOT AGAIN!

For the second straight year, the Kentucky Wildcats have dug themselves into a hole as they fell to an unknown Big South opponent.

Virginia Military Institute, or VMI, came into Rupp to shock the Cats with a 111-103 win.

Coming into the game, VMI Coach Baucomm explained his play style and team philosophy.

“A lot of people who don’t have the personel try to slow the game down, but we take the opposite approach and try to get as many possessions, the more there are the less valuable they are. So we shoot the threes and rebound, and it keeps us in games. If we force turnovers and make shots then it is good.”

And it was good. VMI had a hot hand making 71% of their field goal attempts and forcing Kentucky to turn the ball over countless times.

The peculiar philosophy of the VMI Kadets has led to the team leading the nation the past two year in points scored with an average of 100 points per game.

VMI got dictated the game to the Wildcats and forced Kentucky to play a style which they are unaccustomed to playing. Kentucky simply lacks leadership within the team to change the pace of the game and play the style of basketball which Kentucky wants to play.

Being unable to play Kentucky paced basketball was obvious as big man Patrick Patterson was held to 0 points in the first half. Patterson would be held to only 8 points for the game. Kentucky had a HUGE size in the paint with VMI’s team, having only one player over six feet tall.

Kentucky’s loss puts the Cats in a HUGE hole and can be summed up by HUGE question marks. Lack of leadership and fight was prevalent Friday night and with a showdown with the #1 team in the nation Tuesday against North Carolina one can only hope the issues can be resolved quickly.

“We just got whipped and I don’t like to be whipped”, said Billy Gillespie after the game. And hopefully this bad taste can be ameliorated with improved play Tuesday in Chapel Hill.

KEYS TO A KENTUCKY

VICTORY:

1) Offense continues what worked last week.

Last week the offense under Randall Cobb formed an identity, gained confidence, and nearly upended a once championship hopeful Georgia Bulldog team. The offense needs to stick with last week’s game plan. Run, run, and more run. The option offense seems to be working for the Cats and needs to be ran efficiently against the overall sack leaders in the SEC- Vanderbilt.

2) Defense needs to play better.

The defense began the season with stellar play. Statistcally after four weeks, they were in the top 10 nationally in total defense. But after being called upon too many times to WIN games, the Cats have become riddled with injuries. The KEY INJURIES with in the front seven of the defensive unit, has been exploited. Teams are running on average 128.6 yards per game. IT IS A MUST for Kentucky to stop the Commodores rushing attack. ALSO crucial for the defense, is to not allow the Commodores in the redzone. Vanderbilt has a seasonal success mark of 90% in the redzone. With an anemic offense, that is still working to get better, the defense must limit points.

3) Special Teams, Mistake free.

After a season of issues with the return game, field goals, and punts last week the Kentucky Wildact special teams unit was nearly flawless. The SPECIAL TEAMS must once again play flawless and limit mistakes. The weather will likely be a major factor and therefore the special teams must be extremely careful with the football.

PROJECTION-

The Cats have won 4 straight over the Commodores, BUT each of the past four games have been decided by less and less points as the years have gone on. Vanderbilt nearly defeated the Wildcats in Nashville last season but fell late. This year Vanderbilt received a lot of early season hype but has lost their last four and are in danger of missing the bowl season once again. Vandy is desperate for a win and is coming into the Commonwealth hungry for a win. The hunger Vandy has will keep this game close, BUT Kentucky’s offense came to life last week and on Senior Day emotions will be running high. Kentucky should SQUEEK OUT A NARROW VICTORY and ensure a greater bowl than the past few year.

KENTUCKY 13

VANDERBILT 10

Vanderbilt Needs win in the Commonwealth

The 81^st meeting between the two traditional bottom dwellers in the SEC has a lot to play for Saturday, when the Vanderbilt Commodores come into the Commonwealth to take on the Wildcats of Kentucky.

33 of the 80 total meeting have been decided by 7 points or less, and with both teams playing for bowl positioning, this game will likely be no different. Couple the desperate nature of the game for both teams with predicted retched weather conditions (snow flurries, rain and wind are forcasted), and the game has all the makings of an instant classic.

Vanderbilt comes into the Commonwealth in search of their 6^th win which would make them bowl eligible for the first time since 1982. The Commodore season began with 5 straight wins and a national ranking as high as #13. However, offensive woes and quarterback uncertainties have lead to this team dropping their last four and out of the national landscape of top tier teams.

A key to the losses is Vanderbilt’s inability to put teams away. For the season, they are giving up nearly as many points as they score. With such close games that can go either way, the Dores have been ill equipped to pull out wins against superior athletically talented teams.

Even the wins which bench marked their 5-0 start look less and less impressive. The win against South Carolina was too early in the season to gage and the Auburn win at home also looks unimpressive as the Tigers have fallen completely off the national map and are in danger of not even reaching a bowl themselves.

The luck of the Commodores seemingly ran out when they went to Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Coach Bobby Johnson was hoping to jump start the offense and yanked quarterback starter Chris Nickson for MacKenzie Adams. Adams had played well for the injured Nickson the week prior against Auburn and was felt at the time, Adams would give Vandy a different look. However, whenever such a move is made ruptures in team. The uncertainty at who will be the starter each week has lead to the Vandy downfall.

Both Nickson and Adams are essentially the same quarterback. They both are pocket passers with limited mobility. In nearly equal amount of reps, they have a near equivalent completion percentage, touchdowns thrown, and quarterback ratings. For the game Saturday, the once again the quarterback situation is up in the air, as Bobby Johnson has been quoted in saying that both will share the reps evenly.

As the Commodores prepare to enter the Commonwealth, they are hoping to save their season which had such high hopes coming off the 5-0 mark.

Junior receiver stated the rivalry best when he explained the rivalry between his Commodores and the Kentucky school.

“It’s been a good one since I’ve been here. Before I came here that it always comes down to the wire, because we’re pretty even teams. Recently they’ve come out on the upper end, which is not good. So, we’re trying to change that.”

And to change the momentum and the series struggles against the Cats, Vanderbilt must go back to the way they played at the beginning of the season and not how they have played recently.

Conference Champion Projection

As we are in the last month of the college football season, I will weekly update the projected conference winners of the BCS conferences….:

BIG 10- Great news! Penn State lost and now the National Championship will not see a slow paced Big 10 school against the speed and aggressive play of top tier conferences, the Big 12 and the SEC. With the loss, Penn State , Ohio State, and Michigan State all have three losses in the conference. In a few weeks, Michigan State will take on the Nittany Lions. Ohio State earlier in the season crushed the Michigan State Spartans 45-7, and lost in the last seconds in Penn State 13-6. Ohio State should at least make a BCS bowl game if they win out. Penn State should also win a share of the BIG 10, as they face Michigan State at home the final week of the season.

CHAMPIONS- Penn State/Ohio State

Rose Bowl- Penn State Sugar Bowl- Ohio State

BIG 12 SOUTH- Texas Tech has lasted a brutal stretch in their schedule, which they blew out Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas for three quarters. BUT I am still skeptical that they will complete the unbeaten mark in the conference. Next week the Red Raiders must head to Norman to take on the Oklahoma Sooners. Last year all the Sooners needed was a win over the Red Raiders and they would be a LOCK for the National Title. However, Stoops and crew were unable to do the job and were left with another menial season which ended in a bowl loss and a unfulfilled season. This year the Sooners should revenge their loss at home. With the win, there will be a three way tie in the Big 12 conference with Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech all tied. The champion will be crowned by highest BCS rankings, and I think Texas should be highest ranked and win the south division. TEXAS

Big 12 North- With a lot of hype to enter the season both Missouri and Kansas have struggled to contend with the top tier south teams. Quarterback Chase Daniels and the Missouri Tigers should be the conference champion if they can beat Kansas at the end of the season. BUT I do not think they have enough fire power to take down the south team in the conference championship. Missouri

CHAMPION- Texas

NATIONAL TITLE- Texas Fiesta Bowl- Oklahoma

ACC- The ACC is a conference on a down five years. The conference does NOT have a a team ranked in the top 15. Some say it’s due to the competitiveness of the conference, I say the reason is all the teams are just MEDIOCRE. The college world will be shocked, as the basketball power house, North Carolina will win the conference and make a BCS bowl game for the first time in their school history. The ACC gets a bid from the Orange Bowl. The North Carolina Tarheels are the selction here. The Heels have not been in a bowl since 2004 when they were defeated by, then Big East and now ACC opponent Boston College.

CHAMPION- North Carolina

Orange Bowl- North Carolina

BIG EAST- In another mediocre conference a school which does not get much attention in the realm of college football should be champion and reach a BCS game. The Big East is jumbled with 5 schools in contention to win the conference. In jumbled mess which is the BIG EAST, I project the Cincinnati Bearcats to run the table in the remainder of their schedule. They travel to Louisville, host Pitt and play a dismal Syracuse team to conclude the season.

Champion- Cincinnati

Orange Bowl- Cincinnati

PAC 10- Once again, USC should win the conference. They haven’t really been as dominant as they were expected to be, but they are so much better than the rest of their conference. Winning their conference will land them in the ROSE BOWL for the 4^th time in five years. Although, they will lose some big time defensive stars, next year the Trojans will return their quarterback, their explosive running backs, and receivers. With all the offense coming back, and USC’s ability to reload talent lost, the TROJANS WILL be next years Preseason #1 team in the land.

CHAMPION- USC

Rose BOWL- USC

SEC- Both the WEST and EAST have already been clinched as the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators face off in the conference championship for a national title. It seems that it is a FOREGONE conclusion that the Florida Gators are going to beat the Tide and reach the National Championship. Although the Gators have outscored opponents by 39.8 points per game, the Tide should enter the game as the #1 team in the land and enter UNBEATEN. Traditionally, when a game is thought to be a FORGONE conclusion, the opposite occurs. At first I did think that the Gators would win but they too might think that and beleve in the hype. ALSO, Urban Meyer’s arrogant play and running up scores will come back to haunt him eventually….and in the SEC title game his KARMA will bite him. Nick Saban has done a phenomenol job at keeping ghis team grounded, and they should come out victorious in December.

CHAMPION- Alabama

BCS National Title- Alabama Sugar Bowl- Florida

BCS BUSTERS---There are 3 schools vying for the AT-LARGE bid into the BCS games. UTAH, BOISE STATE, and BALL STATE have all played inferior competition and remain unbeaten. I see two schools losing a game, however…the UTAH Utes will lose at the end of the season to in-state rival BYU Cougars and Ball State should also lost to conference rival Central Michigan. The Boise Broncos will win out as they face the easiest sleight in the remainder of the season. The Broncos host Idaho, travel to Nevada, and host Fresno to close the season. Smurf Turf will reach the FIESTA BOWL…The Fiesta should choose the Broncos in hopes to reenact the Boise Miracle of a few years ago…

Fiesta Bowl- Boise State Broncos

SEC Bowl Projections--November 8th 2008

National Title- Florida Gators

Florida is the most complete team in college football to this point in the season. Other than a lapse against Mississippi, the Gators have dominated each opponent they have faced. This one loss team should win over both South Carolina and Florida State before the meet Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Defeating an unbeaten team, the Gators will skyrocket in the bowls and land in the title game for the 2^nd time in three years.

Sugar Bowl- Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama is unbeaten and should finish the season that way with games against Mississippi State and Auburn, both teams have struggled of late and should not be much of a threat to pull an upset. The Tide DO NOT get to the title game of the way they have been winning. Other than the first half of the Georgia game, Alabama has played bend but not break football….that just is NOT safe and when they are challenged in the SEC championship, they will not be so lucky. The loss will give them only one for the season and that is good enough for a BCS selection

Capital One Bowl- Georgia Bulldogs

After two SEC teams will make the BCS, the Capital One Bowl gets to select the next SEC school and will chose a 2 loss Georgia Bulldog team. The season had such high hopes and it is sad to see them land here.

Cotton Bowl- LSU

The Cotton Bowl is played in Dallas, Texas and will likely select the next best western division team. IF the Tigers can beat Ole Miss, and they should, the Tigers will land in the Cotton Bowl.

Outback Bowl- South Carolina

With the next best record in the conference, the Outback Bowl should select South Carolina.

Chic-Fil-A Bowl- Kentucky

With a new found offense and a defense that is getting healthy the Cats should win at least one more game which will propel them to a better bowl than the Music City Bowl. Atlanta is a hot pick because Kentucky fans travel well and should sell out the Georgia Dome.

Music City Bowl- Vanderbilt

All they need is one win….just one and the Commodores will make a bowl for the first time since 1982. With Tennessee on the schedule they should get a win. Nashville will be the destination as the Dores will stay home for a holiday bowl game in their own city.

Independence Bowl- Auburn

What a SAD, SAD, SAD year for the Tigers…But a bowl is a bowl, although this is NOT what was expected this season.

Liberty Bowl-Ole Miss

Houston Nutt has created a winner in Mississippi as he will led the Rebels to a bowl game in his first season as head coach. Landing in third in the WEST and getting enough wins, the Liberty Bowl should select the Rebels

Gators still chompin' as Dores feel the bite

Florida @ Vanderbilt- 42-14 Florida

Florida- Needing just one win in two SEC tries to clinch the SEC Eastern Division title the Gators did not disappoint. Urban Meyer’s squad jumped out to a 42-0 lead before even allowing the Commodores to get on the board. Tim Tebow continued his stellar play by throwing for 3 touchdowns and running for two more. Tebow’s play the past month has put him back as the front runner for a second straight heisman. For the season, the Gators have dominated every team they have played, they have outscored opponents on average by 39.5 points per game. Defensively, the Gators also proved stout by holding the Commodores to just 15 total first downs. The win propels the Gators to the SEC title game for the second time in three years. Next week the Gators will host the Gamecocks in a game which is still essential for the Gators national title hopes.

Vanderbilt- The Commodores season has really taken a down swing as they have now lost four straight games. Vanderbilt built up a solid resume early by beating both South Carolina and Auburn early, but really have not dominated or played solid all season. Luck has ran out for the Dores as they still search for a 6^th win and bowl eligibility. Vanderbilt, like every other team in the SEC was overwhelmed by the Gators. They could not get anything going offensively and could not stop the Florida Gator offensive arsenal. One worry for the Dores, was the early exit of quarterback MacKenzie Adams. If he is out for a game or even the season the Dores will rely on Chris Nickson who was benched early in the season. Searching out a bowl-eligible win for the fifth straight week will be the task for Vanderbilt as they head to the Commonwealth next Saturday to take on the Kentucky Wildcats.

Tide Roll in the Saban Bowl

Alabama @ LSU—27-21 (overtime) Alabama

Alabama- The Crimson Tide again did not play stellar but did enough to win in Baton Rouge. The win clinched the SEC Western Title as the Tide will appear in the SEC Championship game for the first time since 1999 when Alabama dismantled the Florida Gators 34-7. The key to the west-clinching win was the Alabama defense. The top SEC defense forced four interceptions, which massively helped to defeat a hungry Tiger team. Senior John Parker Wilson played well at quartback, as he did nothing spectacular but failed to make costly mistakes enroute to the victory. After a few lack luster weeks, running back Glenn Coffee also reemerged as an explosive back. Coffee rushed for 127 yards and a score. Alabama will now take their unbeaten mark to face a hungry Mississippi State team next week.

LSU- Les Miles had his Tigers thinking upset Saturday and it almost happened. The Tigers battled back from a late 14-21 deficit to tie the game and create overtime. But Overtime saw the same Tigers as usual, NO OFFENSE… Quarterback Jarrett Lee threw the ball to the defense 4 times and helped put the defense in very unfavorable postions. With the struggles in the passing game, it was the running game that took shape against the Tide. Les Miles employed a little bit of the Wildcat offense and tan for a total of 201 yards. The loss now gives the Tigers 4 in conference. They must play Troy before a showdown with the creator of the Wildcat offense, Houston Nutt and the Ole Miss Rebels for 2^nd place in the division.

Old Smokey Refuse to Fight

Wyoming @ Tennessee…Wyoming 13-7

Tennessee- After an emotional week in Knoxville, in which Coach Phillip Fulmer said he would step down at the end of the season, one would think that the Vols would come out and play for their coach, win the rest of their games and at least make a bowl game. BUT, the same Tennessee that has shown up all year showed up again Saturday. The Volunteers struggled on offense only gaining 216 total yards and turned the ball over twice. They were shut out in the first half and trailed the Wyoming Cowboys all game. The loss ends even the outside chance of bowl eligibility ot even a .500 season. Changes are a coming in Knoxville, and with the way the season has gone to this point, changes are most certainly needed.

Garcia Stuggles, But Cocks get the Victory

Arkansas @ South Carolina--- South Carolina 34-21

South Carolina- Stephen Garcia struggled at quarterback and was pulled in favor of former starter Chris Smelley. The quarterback change seemed to not be a factor, due to the Gamecocks purely overmatching and outplaying the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Cock defense forced Arkansas into 3 turnovers and held the running backs to only 56 total yards all game. This win gives the Gamecocks 7 on the season and a winning record in conference play with a 4-3 mark. The Cocks now will head to Gainesville to take on a Gator team on a misson.

Arkansas- A week after winning SEC offensive player of the week honors, senior quarterback Casey Dick, severely regressed. He threw three interceptions. Three turnovers is hard for any team to overcome, especially on the road. Coach Bobby Petrino knew this Arkansas gig would be a rebuilding process, but did he really think they’d miss a bowl in his first year? I am not sure, but with their sixth loss of an already dismal season, it will be very hard to salvage this season, Next week Arkansas travel to Starkville to take on a Mississippi State Bulldog team as desperate as they are for a win.

Auburn Bounces Back

UT-Martin @ Auburn—37-20 Auburn

Auburn- Auburn’s struggles and four straight losses was certain to stop against such a lesser tier opponent in the University of Tennessee- Martin. The Tigers of Auburn controlled every phase of the game. The offense gained 452 total yards, got 26 total first downs and forced three turnovers. BUT, they did see struggles as well, as the Tigers made three turnovers of their own, none were interceptions. The turnovers will be costly if they intend on competing against the Georgia Bulldogs next week. This week was a MUST-WIN and Tommy Tubberville got his team to pull through, now, they get the opportunity to play spoiler as they face two SEC heavy weights: Georgia and Alabama in the Iron Bowl.