SEC Week 1 Thoughts...

Last week in the SEC, I was 11-1. Okay, most of the games were easy to pick, but still 11-1 to start the season...pretty good.

Before I post my projections here's what I observed from last week-

**Alabama is as good as advertised**

I wasn't sure how losing two All Americans on the offensive line, replacing a senior quarterback, and veteran running back would translate into immeadeate success. But against the #7 ranked team in the country, the Tide was ready to roll.

**Don't worry about LSU yet**

The Tigers did not blow out last years college football laughing stock the Washington Huskies, but that was a very emotional game for the Huskies. New coach, new era in Seattle...it had the makings of a close one and was. It will be KEY for the Tigers to play well this week, at home against the upstart Vanderbilt Commodores.

**Florida is the Cream of the Crop**

The Gators are easily the best team in the nation and quite possibly could be the one of the best teams of all time. This week they have another cake game before hosting Tennessee.

Thoughts on Kentucky/Miami Game

Kentucky Wins 42-0
Post Game Thoughts---
1) The Offense has weapons.
Last year the offense was anemic. The team could not move the ball and were terrible in 3rd down conversions. Yesterday the Wildcat offense, after the first quarter, got into a rhythm by scoring 35 offensive points. Quarterback Mike Hartline still might not have a strong arm and still has work to do but he does have two playmakers at receiver- Randall Cobb and JUCO transfer Chris Mathews. Mathews didn’t really have tremendous stats for his first collegiate game, but showed signs of a future GO-To threat. Mathews has a large frame and if he can continue to progress, a big bodied receiver will give the Cats offense a much needed boost.
Along with Mathews and Cobb’s ability to catch the ball, it looks like the Cats will have a strong one,two punch at tailback. Alfonzo Smith carried the ball with power and Derrick Locke came back after last seasons devastating knee injury to give speed to the rushing game. The mix of power and speed will keep teams off balance this season.
Just as the rushing attack will keep opposing defenses off balance, the WILDCAT formation was run 3 times for a total of 2 touchdowns and 31 yards. With speedy Randal Cobb at quarterback and Derrick Locke in the backfield the Cats have a lot of speed and should help change pace and tone during a game.

2) Defensive line needs work.
As should be expected, the defensive line struggled on Saturday, though the score does not show it. Kentucky started 3 new players this season on the 4 man front. If Miami were any stronger, the Redhawks could have taken huge advantage of some pretty big rushing holes.

3) Hartline still needs to progress.
What worries me most about this team is Mike Hartline’s inability to throw a ball deep and his reactions under pressure. Each time Kentucky was in a 3rd and long, Miami would blitz someone and Hartline was unable to make the proper reads. Last year, when pressured Hartline goes for the receiver screen. The Redhawks scouted this and knew this. And each time pressured, Hartline attempted to go to a receiver screen, which ended up in bobbled, nearly picked off passes. When the Cats play tougher SEC defenses, those bobbled, nearly intercepted passes will be actual intercepted passes and possible points for the opponent. They need another option for Hartline under pressure….a back out of the backfield, tightend some where over the middle….something other than a receiver screen…

All in all Kentucky won and I guess that should be enough to make the Big Blue Nation happy for a week.
The Cats now have a bye week to prepare for the Governor’s Cup against Louisville.

The Rumble at the River

Kentucky V Miami(OH)
Rumble At The River

CATS KEYS TO VICTORY
OFFENSE
1) Mike Hartline must assert himself as the leader- Well, the Blue Grass Nation isn’t sold on the junior quarterback and still some feel that the Cats best chance to win will be by inserting one of their two true freshmen into the position. However, Rich Brooks has put all his confidence in Hartline to be the starter. Hartline NEEDS a solid performance against a Red Hawk team that last year was at the bottom of their conference giving up 396 yards a game and nearly 33 points.
2) Score Early- Last year Kentucky’s Achilles heel was that they feel behind teams early in games. In fact, the Wildcats were outscored overall 34 to 101in the first quarter. The Red Hawks weren’t that much better as they too got off to slow starts last season being outscored 20 to 84. It will be key for the Kentucky offense to click early. This Miami team will come out with a lot of confidence and wanting to bring on the Mike Haywood era with a victory. The best way to stomp their enthusiasm is to score first and keep scoring early in the game.
3) WILDCAT FORMATION-Last year, true freshman Randall Cobb began the season at receiver and when Mike Hartline was not getting the job done, he took on the quarterback roll. This year Rich Brooks has made it clear, Randall Cobb will NOT play quarterback. He will however, run the Wildcat formation. The Wildcat formation will the Cats a chance to change the pace and flow of the game with one play and give a new dynamic to an offense that was in need of a change of pace last season.

DEFENSE
1) Stop Miami Playmakers- You see the stats of last year’s Red Hawk team and don’t really feel fearful of their offensive prowess. But, this team returns their top 4 skill players. The Red Hawks have a lot of
2) Big Plays- This year the Wildcat defense returns two preseason ALL SEC players on the defensive side of the ball. In the middle, linebacker Micah Johnson should be able to command the middle of the field, make the right calls and stop the Red Hawk ball carriers. At corner, Trevard Lindley should be able to shut down Miami’s top receiving threat. Lindley is on the watch list for the Nagurski, Berdnark, and Jim Thorpe awards. Although, football is a team game, these two players stayed one more season in the bluegrass to lift their name recognition and one great game at a time they should be able to.

Around College Football- Week 1

College Football Week 1
ACC
Florida State(#18) Over Miami
BIG TEN
Michigan Over Western Michigan
BIG 12
Oklahoma(#3) Over BYU(#20)
BIG EAST
Cincinnati Over Rutgers

Week One in the SEC

Just like last year I will be bringin you weekly projections for SEC games as well a key game per conference.

Today is the start of college football. I am heading down to Cincinnati to cover the "Rumble by the River".

Later tonight, I will post up a post game and some pictures of the game...it is supposed to be a big one up in Cincinnati.

Anyways here is what should happen around the SEC this weekend.

SEC WEEK 1
South Carolina @ N.C State- The Gamecocks kick off the college football weekend with a match up against a regional rival. N.C State is in a down year so South Carolina should have an edge….not too high on the Gamecocks this year, so this game should be close
WINNER- South Carolina…usc 7-3(W)

Charleston Southern @ FLORIDA(1)- The Gators begin defending their national championship against a school that might lose 100-0. It will be interesting to see just how many touchdowns Tim Tebow has to open the season in another Heisman hopeful year.
WINNER- Florida

GEORGIA (13) @ Oklahoma State (11) - Tough game for the Dawgs to open the season. I don’t see how a team that has to replace leaders at quarterback, running back, and receiver will play well enough to win in such a hostile environment this early in the season.
WINNER- Oklahoma State

Western Kentucky @ Tennessee- The Volunteers open the Lane Kiffin era with a game with the Hilltoppers. Should be a easy one for the Vols before next weeks revenge game verse UCLA. Keep an eye on how Jonathon Crompton plays, his progression will be key for the Volunteers success this season.
WINNER- Tennessee

Western Carolina @ Vanderbilt- The Commodores, off a bowl season host a team from the Southern Conference. The Dores should leave this game with a win and some confidence. All they can really hope for is confidence, next week they head to Baton Rouge.
WINNER- Vanderbilt

Kentucky @ Miami(OH)- The Wildcats head to Cincinnati in a game deemed; “The Rumble by the River.” Kentucky has won back to back opening games and holds the 2nd longest active streak for nonconference wins with 14. Look for the Cats to win handily over a Redhawk team that is in rebuilding mode with a new coach and a new system.
WINNER- Kentucky

Ole Miss(10) @ Memphis- Everyone will be gunning for the Rebels this year as they start the season with a non conference regional rivalry game @ Memphis. Look for Jevan Snead to have a strong first game as he looks to be in the Heisman race this coming season.
WINNER- OLE Miss

Alabama(5) vs Viginia Tech(7)- In the Chic Fila A opening game in held in Atlanta last year, the Crimson Tide upset a Clemson team which had their eyes set on a Nation Title run. This year the Tide will be the hunted and surprise no one. Virginia Tech grew up last year and now is one of the more veteran teams in the ACC. It will be hard for the Tide to replace two All Americans on the offensive line and their senior quarterback from a year ago so early….
WINNER- Virginia Tech

LSU(9) @ Washington- Traditionally LSU doesn’t like to travel to BCS conference schools in their non conference schedule. I am not sure if you can really count Washington a BCS school, as last year they went 0-12 and now have a new coach, new system, and start from ground zero. The Tigers enter this year with little hype….that will change as the season comes along.
WINNER- LSU

Missouri State @ Arkansas- The Razorbacks have some hope to return to bowl eligibility this season as they open the season with a tune up game against a Missouri Valley Conference team. Key thing to watch early is how strong the defense plays, they return 10 players from last years unit and should rise to be one of the top defenses in the SEC this year.
WINNER- Arkansas

Louisiana Tech @ Auburn- After the hiring, Gene Chizik was booed from the airport. In his opening game, he should be cheered as the Tigers open up with a very winnable and dominatable game. The Tigers have a new offensive system in place, and that should be an interesting thing to watch because last year their offense was TERRIBLE.
WINNER- Auburn

Jackson State @ Mississippi State- Two years removed from a bowl winning the season, the Bulldogs are starting over. Their opening game should be a nice win for their confidence.
WINNER- Mississippi State

Justin's Preseason Top 25

Pre Season Top 25
1) Florida
2) Texas
3) USC
4) Oklahoma
5) Ohio State
6) Alabama
7) Virginia Tech
8) Ole Miss
9) LSU
10) Penn State
11) Oklahoma State
12) Georgia
13) California
14) Georgia Tech
15) Boise State
16) TCU
17) Nebraska
18) Oregon
19) Oregon State
20) Iowa
21) Notre Dame
22) Florida State
23) Pittsburgh
24) North Carolina
25) BYU

2009 Way Too Early Bowl Projections...

2009 Bowl Season
BCS National Title- Florida v Texas
Orange Bowl- Rutgers v Florida State
Fiesta Bowl- Oklahoma State v TCU
Rose Bowl- USC v Ohio State
Sugar Bowl- Ole Miss v Notre Dame
Capital One- LSU v Penn State
Outback Bowl- Northwestern v Tennessee
Cotton Bowl- Alabama v Oklahoma
Gator Bowl- Nebraska v Georgia Tech
Chic-Fil-A Bowl- Georgia v Virginia Tech
Music City Bowl- Kentucky v North Carolina
Insight Bowl- Michigan v Colorado
Sun Bowl- Oregon v South Florida
Indepdence Bowl- Auburn v Kansas
Liberty Bowl- Arkansas v East Carolina
Holiday Bowl- California v Texas Tech
Emerald Bowl- Stanford v Clemson
Alamo Bowl- Michigan State v Kansas
Meineke Bowl- Pittsburgh v Boston College
Champs Sports Bowl- Miami (FL) v Iowa
Poinsettia Bowl- Arizona State v UTEP
Papa John’s Bowl- Cincinnati v Tulsa
GMAC Bowl- Akron v Wake Forest
Hawaii Bowl- UCLA v Air Force
Las Vegas Bowl- Arizona v Utah
Humanitarian Bowl- Oregon State v Boise State
Armed Forces Bowl- Houston v Army
Motor City Bowl- Minnesota v Central Michigan
Texas Bowl- West Virginia v Texas A and M
New Orleans Bowl- Southern Mississippi v Troy
St Petersberg Bowl- Florida Atlantic v Western Michigan
International Bowl- Ohio v Louisville
New Mexico Bowl- Colorado State v Louisiana Tech
Eagle Bank Bowl- Navy v Wake Forest

Florida Gators

Florida Gators
It’s a Tim Tebow world and college football is living in it. After two championships in three years, the Florida Gators are the preseason #1 team and have their eyes set on another National Title. To defend their title, the Gators return 11 on defense and the top player in college football maybe ever, Tim Tebow. This looks to be a special year in Gainesville and if all goes according to plan, the Gators might be the one winning it all again when all is said and done.

OFFENSE
Entering the season the Gators return their top rusher and top passer---Tim Tebow. The Gators with Tebow should be a force alone, but they do add experience at line. The line averages a monstrous 318 pounds per player and should hold their ground against the top SEC defenses. The question entering fall camp is how the receivers will do without their top 2 contributors from last year. The running game led by Demps and Rainy last year also need filled as both players are gone. The offense will be solidily Tim Tebow and through the past three years he’s proven that is enough to dominate most of the competition.

DEFENSE
What is scary about the returning national champions is the defense. Returning 11 from a national champion is unheard of!! The Gator defense will be led by first team All American middle line backer Brandon Spikes. Spikes led the team last year in tackles with 93, was second on the team with interceptions with 4, and added two sacks to an impressive statistical season. Leading the line will be the Gators sack master Carlos Dunlap. As a sophomore last year, Dunlap sacked the quarterback 9.5 times and should once again give SEC offenses headaches. The secondary also returns all four starters. Last season they entered the year all being underclassmen and now, with that year of experience, the Gators should be able to shut down opponents passing game well, too.

SEASONAL PROJECTIONS

The Gators return experience, a great coach, and what might end up to be the greatest college football player ever. Tim Tebow has his sights set on becoming the first player in a very long time to win the Heisman twice and to add another National title to his resume would not be that bad either. Other than experience, the Gators host rivals Tennessee, Florida State, and Georgia(‘neutral’…in Jacksonville, FL). The game which the Gators must watch out for is in Baton Rouge October 10. The Gators have not won in Death Valley their past 2 trips. I project the Gators to not stumble much this season and end the season where it is going to be started---as the best team in the country.

12-0

Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee Volunteers

In 2007 the Volunteers snuck into the East Division’s top spot and battled the soon to be national champion LSU Tigers in the national title. Why say they snuck into the top spot? Well, that is because of their wins were not impressive. In a down division, the Volunteers got clobbered by rebuilding rivals Florida and Alabama. It took them 5 overtimes to be Kentucky and needed last second heroics to take down Vanderbilt at home. I was so unimpressed by their performance that I projected the Vols to finish fifth in the East in 2008. Not to my surprise, the Volunteers struggled early. They began the season with a heart retching overtime loss to UCLA in Pasadena and never fully recovered. Their head coach Phil Fulmer was fired after 17 seasons at midseason and the struggled to find any identity the rest of the season. This year is a new day in Knoxville. The Volunteers have been the most talked about team in college football thanks to recruiting violations and smack talk handed out by their new head coach Lane Kiffin. Kiffin talks the talk and if he can get the Vols to “walk the walk”, Rocky Top might be able to bounce back from a disappointing 5-7 2008 campaign.

OFFENSE
Last season the Vols had to replace a senior quarterback for a junior that looked to have the tools to be a solid SEC quarterback. Jonathon Crompton is a 6’4 pocket passing quarterback that looked to be stronger than that of what he was replacing. But Crompton struggled early and was pulled in favor of sophomore Nick Stephens midway through the season. Inconsistency at quarterback held up the rest of the offense as their play maker, running back Arian Foster took leaps and bounds backward gaining a mere 527 yards last season. This year the starter at running back appears to be true freshman Bryce Brown. Brown was the number one running back recruit and should be ready to produce immediately for the Volunteer offense. The line returns bigger and stronger than last season’s group. All averaging at least 300 pounds, Tennessee should have enough experience to open holes and give Crompton more time to throw.

DEFENSE
The defense should improve on their #3 ranked SEC defense with athe addition of NFL defensive guru coordinator Monte Kiffin. Returning for senior season in are the middle of the defense—tackle Wes Brown and Dan Williams. The experience in the middle will help slow down the SEC’s top rushing attacks and give the linebackers the ability to see the plays develop and get to the ball. The line will need to make plays early especially, because the line backers are inexperienced and untested. In the defensive back field all eyes will be on strong safety Eric Berry. Tennessee has put Berry on the Heisman watch list as he looks to improve upon last seasons 72 tackles, 3 sacks, and 7 interceptions. Having Berry roam the field will be critical to the Vols success early this season.

SEASON PROJECTIONS
Inability to move the ball caused the Volunteers to start off slow and never get into a winning groove. Last year was tumultuous in Knoxville. The Vols lost to all their rivals—Florida, Auburn, Georgia, and Alabama. As well as suffer the most embarrassing loss ever- at home to Wyoming on Homecoming. This year,look for the Volunteers to avenge some losses and retake their place nationally in college football. Although they have to go to Gainesville, which will be humbling for Kiffin, the Vols will be able to pull upsets against West foes Alabama and Mississippi. Rocky top should bounce back to form this season….

9-3

Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia faces a rebuilding project this year as they lose their most productive offensive weapons at quarterback, running back and receiver. Last year the Bulldogs entered the season as the preseason #1 team. Injuries and a tough schedule landed the Dogs to a three loss season and the Capital One Bowl. This year Georgia hopes that their ability to recruit can lead them back into the national picture. The Dawgs will be tested early and if the replacements at the skill positions can fill in with little drop off the Bulldogs can be a dark horse in the 2009 season.
OFFENSE

Fresh faces at the skill positions will be the story early in Athens. Georgia replaces three year starter Mathew Stafford with senior Joe Cox at quarterback. Cox, although a senior is untested, but seen as a leader amongst his teammates. Gone also is running back Knowshon Moreno. His replacement is sophomore Caleb King. King got some experience last year as he gained 247 yards and averaged 5.1 yads per carry. The running game might be stronger than last year’s due to a healthy offensive line. The line returns all five starters and returns 2 starters from the 2007 season that were out with injuries last season. This line should be one of the strongest and deepest in college football. A lot of hope rest on the cohesion of this unit. At receiver look for A.J Green to continue putting up good numbers; in his freshman season last year, Green led the Dawgs in receptions (56), yards (963), and touchdowns (8).
DEFENSE

The defense returns 8 starters and should be primed for a better year. Last year the Bulldogs were 8th in SEC defenses. This can be attributed to so many injuries to the defensive line. This year the front 7 returns 2 All SEC players in defensive tackle Geno Atkins and Will linebacker Rennie Curran. The defensive backs look to be a weak spot as they lose 3 of their top performers. Look for teams to test their pass game early as the Bulldogs are projected to have a youth movement at the corner positions.

SEASONAL PREDICTION
Having to replace veteran leadership is tough for any school even the schools that get top 10 recruiting classes yearly. Once again the Bulldogs will be tested early, they face Oklahoma State in Stillwater to begin the season, then play back to back conference games before hosting Arizona State and traveling to LSU. In fact, the Bulldogs youth and inexperience might put them in a hole before getting out of the first week of October. Look for Georgia to lose games early.

8-4

Kentucky Wildcats

Three straight years the Kentucky Wildcats have reached a bowl game and have won all three. Known for basketball, the football team has stolen some headlines in Lexington as they enter the 2009 campaign looking to go bowling four straight years—something NEVER seen in Lexington in over 100 years of existence. In their way is a brutal SEC schedule, a loss of some star talent on defensive line, and huge question marks on offense. Head Coach Rich Brooks doesn’t seem too phased by the national and local media calling for the Cats to drop to last in the East as Brooks put it; “We are picked last every year.” And since they are picked last, Kentucky can only surprise teams in the coming season.

OFFENSE

In Lexington the talk has been centered around the quarterback position. Last season, Kentucky began with sophomore Mike Hartline under center, but when he was unable to move the ball he was replaced by true freshman Randall Cobb. Cobb was recruited to play receiver and play in the Wildcat formation, but Hartline’s inability to lead allotted Cobb to get a majority of the reps until an injury at the end of the season. This past offseason, Kentucky recruited two of the nation’s top quarterbacks- running quarterback Morgan Newton and true pocket passer Ryan Mossakowski. Prior to fall camp, both were thought to have a strong shot at the quarterback position. However, both have shown some their age and lack of maturity behind center. It will be Mike Hartline’s team as for as long as he can hold it. Randall Cobb will now move to fulltime receiver and run the Wildcat formation when needed. The running game should continue to be strong with senior Alfonzo Smith getting a bulk of the carries. Also coming back will be Derrick Locke. Locke is has a tremendous freshman season but last year had a devastating knee injury. If Locke can return to his freshman form, Kentucky should have a solid one-two punch in the backfield. The offensive line returns seven players with starting experience, which should only create more time for quarterback Mike Hartline and create holes for the running game.

DEFENSE
Defensively the Wildcats hope to get back to the early season form of a year ago. Entering the fifth game of the season, Kentucky was in the top 10 defenses in the country. However injuries at the line backing core and inconsistency at the corners caused the Cats to struggle the rest of the season. A major cause for worry on defense within the interior, The Wildcats must replace 3 fourths of their defensive line. The huge strength to the Cats though will be at the second and third levels. At corner, Kentucky fields pre-season first team All-American Trevard Lindley who last year picked off four passes and shut down opposing team’s top receiver. At linebacker, senior Micah Johnson will lead the defense. Johnson had an opportunity to leave early last season and possibly be a solid second round draft choice. However, he decided to give it a go one more year and with an injury free year he could put himself in the first round of the NFL draft in April. Other than the two standout players, Kentucky only returns 2 other players and must rely on their strongest recruiting class yet, to mature quickly and play at SEC speed.

SEASONAL PROJECTIONS
With fall camp 3 weeks in the books, Rich Brooks has said numerous times that this team is the best all around team he has seen since he has been here. If that is the case Kentucky could be bowl bound for a fourth consecutive year. Kentucky will be battle tested early as the schedule appears daunting. After an opening game in Cincinnati against Miami of Ohio, the Cats get a bye week. Following the bye, Kentucky must play 11 straight weeks. Depth has always been an issue for Kentucky in the SEC, so the Big Blue faithful will truly see how ready Kentucky is to compete in the most competitive conference in football early this season. Following the bye, Kentucky faces rival Louisville, Florida, and Alabama in consecutive weeks. In October, the Wildcats head to Columbia and play Steve Spurrier and South Carolina and go to Auburn. Although Kentucky has NEVER beaten a Steve Spurrier led team, if they can get by the Gamecocks, and win all the nonconference games- Miami, Louisville, Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana-Monroe; Kentucky has a shot at finishing the season with seven wins (assuming a win in Vanderbilt and hosting Mississippi State). Rich Brooks has been known to pull an upset or two in his tenure here in Lexington, taking down Georgia in 2006 and LSU in 2007 so the ball is really up in the air to see if he can pull another this season. Look for Kentucky to finish around the same as the past three years and reach a fourth consecutive bowl.

8-4

Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt Commodores
The school that is known as one of the most prestigious learning institutions in the country became a Cinderella story for college football. After taking down a ranked South Carolina squad in week 2 and going to Oxford and taking down Mississippi, the ‘Dores were ranked for the first time in more than a decade and hosted SEC powerhouse Auburn. Vanderbilt won another close one. The Commodores reached as high as #13 nationally. The rest of the season however Vanderbilt nice carriage turned into a pumpkin as they lost 6 of their last 7. Thanks to the terrific 5-0 start, Vandy still made a bowl, their first since 1982 and won! This year hopes are high for Vanderbilt as they hope to build on last year’s success.

OFFENSE
Vanderbilt has one of the most experienced teams coming back. They have 8 players on offense that started last season. An important item to keep your eyes on is the situation at quarterback. Last year MacKenzie Adams and Chris Nickson shared snaps until the end of the season. Then with both going down to injuries late in the season redshirt freshman Larry Smith stepped in and led the Commodores to a bowl victory going 10 for 17 for 121 yards. Entering camp Smith is the starter but behind him is MacKenzie Adams who also has experience and can step in if Smith is not the answer. Vanderbilt has NOT had a 1,000 yards rusher since 1995, but that record might fall this year as they have all 5 starters back on the line and an experienced senior running back in Jared Hawkins. Hawkins led the team in rushing last year with 593 yards and 4 touchdowns.

DEFENSE
Last year’s team relied heavily on playing stout defense. The defense held opponents to under 20 points a game and got after the quarterback well. This year hopes to be more of the same for Bobby Johnson’s squad. The defense returns 9 starters from last year’s unit and should have a little more depth to deal with the bumps of bruises that occur playing in the SEC.

SEASON PROJECTION
With 17 of 22 starters coming back a bowl winning season it is easy to think that the Dores will take more steps forward in competing in the SEC. But the schedule is not in their favor. Vanderbilt starts the season on September 5 and plays nonstop without a bye week through the middle of November. Without a bye in the middle of the season and already lacking the depth of most SEC schools the Commodores will struggle. Vanderbilt is getting better, but this year the record will not show it…

4-8

South Carolina Gamecocks

5 years ago all was excited in Columbia. Steve Spurrier was leaving the NFL and coming to South Carolina to bring the Fun ‘N Gun offense to a school in desparate need of a lift. By this time Gamecock fans figured to be atop the SEC and vying for national titles just as Spurrier helped Florida do. However these five years have been tenuous and outlined by sporadic quarterback play. The Ole Ball Coach can’t find the quarterback to run his system and therefore the Gamecocks have floundered. This season there is only 11 players coming back. One of the 11 is quarterback Stephen Garcia, someone who was part of the three quarterback rotation last year. With the same quarterback and young skill players, look for another inconsistent year in Columbia.

OFFENSE
For the past three seasons South Carolina has been looking for a quarterback that can move the ball, not throw interceptions, and lead the Gamecocks through the SEC schedule. And for the last three years there has been rotating quarterbacks- game to game, quarter to quarter, and series to series. This year Steve Spurrier hopes sophomore Stephen Garcia has been beaten down enough in the past 2 years to make better decisions and be the ONE signal caller for the Gamecocks. It was Garcia that started the bowl game against Iowa. He looked less than impressive or ready to play. He made 4 turnovers in the first half as South Carolina got destroyed to Iowa 31-10. Garcia needs help and the team can only get better. Last year the line allowed 39 sacks and gave little room for running backs to rush through as the averaged a meager 2.9 yards per carry. The receiver position should be better due to more experience. In fact, Spurrier is calling red shirt freshman Jason Barnes the second coming of Sidney Rice(1st round selection for Minnesota Vikings 2006). The line is key for the Gamecocks to improve this season, they have 7 returning with six or more games started.

DEFENSE
Not necessarily a trait of the Steve Spurrier Florida years, but in Columbia the Cocks have been led by their defense. The defensive line is full of experience and looks to continue on last year’s success of getting after the quarterback. The line achieved 31 sacks last season and bring back 3 of their 4 starters. The line backing unit looks to take a step back this year since they lose their top backer Jasper Brinkley in the middle. The Cocks will look for leadership from 1st team All SEC Eric Norwood. Norwood started his career as a defensive end but was moved to linebacker last season. In his first season of duty he led the team in tackles with 75 and reached the quarterback 9 times. The corner positions are unproven and will likely struggle early. Both starters are underclassmen and have yet to have much experience under their belts.

SEASONAL PREDICTION
South Carolina can be either really strong or really weak….my guess is for weak. The up and down tenure for Steve Spurrier should continue since the quarterback position is not truly solidified. Add that to a tailback and an unimpressive line….the offense will be HORRENDOUS. Last year the Cocks could rely solidly on their defense. They returned 9 and were able to get turnovers and create points on defense. This year they only return 6 and are young at the corners, which will test them early at NC State and in Georgia. They also take a trip to Tuscaloosa and Knoxville. Look for this team to struggle all season and end with a subpar record.

4-8

BOLD PROJECTION—This season will go so badly that STEVE SPURRIER retires after it…..

SEC East

Well, we just finished with the SEC West division projections and 2009 outlooks. I project five of the six teams in the conference to finish bowl eligible. However, everyone's preseason favorite, Ole Miss, I think will NOT live up to the preseason hype. After last year's rebuilding year in Baton Rouge and season long hunt for a quarterback, the Tigers appeared to find an answer at the Chic-Fil-A Bowl where they took down one of the hottest teams at the end of the season- Georgia Tech. So, I feel the LSU is primed to win the West and quite possibly be a dark horse for a national title.

Now....let's ge to the SEC Eastern Division projections....

LSU Tigers

LSU Tigers
Last year was time to rebuild in Baton Rouge. Gone were so many leaders and great players on both sides of the ball. Thorough out the season the Tigers battled with uncertainty at quarterback; playing both freshman Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch. The defense was a strong point but not strong enough to offset the offensive miscues. Now, a year after retooling, it is time for LSU to retake their place on top of the SEC West.
OFFENSE
It wasn’t until late (too late) in the season that Les Miles inserted another freshman Jordan Jefferson into the fire at quarterback. Jefferson played the last series versus Tulane at the end of October and started the last two games—losing both. However giving Les Miles a month to prepare for a bowl game was just what this team needed. In the Chic-Fil-A Bowl Jefferson hit his first 9 attempts and shocked the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the world with a dominating performance. This season the offense should be firing on all cylinders with Jefferson at the helm, senior Charles Scott (1208 yards, 18 TD Last year), and stand out senior receiver Brandon LaFell 63 catches 929 yards, 8 tds). Although the Tigers only return 2 linemen they are the ends, which should help give Jefferson time in and out of the pocket.
DEFENSE
Always a bench mark for LSU football is the defense and even with the constant need to retool due to players lost to the NFL, LSU has tons of depth and talent at every position. The line will be anchored by 1st team SEC selection defensive end Rahim Alem. Alem had 8 sacks last year and should be even more disruptive this year. The line backing core in the Bayou should be strong as well. The strength of the defense will be the defensive backfield. Everyone returns besides the strong safety. The ability to stop the pass, which the leading west teams in conference like to do(Ole Miss and Alabama) will be key for the ultimate success of the Tigers.
SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
LSU is sleighted to have the toughest SEC schedule of all. The Tigers have to play Georgia in Athens, Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and Mississippi in Oxford, and take on Florida. Last year this team would have faltered with such a tough sleight. This year, look for things to be different. The Tigers are loaded on offense, loaded on defense, and have the most talented coach in the SEC—Les Miles. He will motivate this team to do great things this year. No, they won’t go unbeaten. But they should do well enough to tie for the West title and head to Atlanta for the SEC title game.
10-2

Ole Miss

Ole Miss Rebels

"I think with that ranking comes a lot higher expectations. As far as the team goes I don't think we're handling it any differently said quarterback Jevan Snead on SEC Media day. However, things might need to be handled differently. Coming to the 2008 season the Ole Miss Rebels were entering the season with a new coach, a new quarterback and a 3-9 record. No one expected the Running Rebel offense to be such a big hit in year one. No one expected Houston Nutt to go down to The Swamp and upset the best team in the country. No could have thought that the Rebels would go to Baton Rouge and win handily. No one even gave the Rebels much credit against a very good Texas Tech team in the Cotton Bowl. The Rebels snuck up on people last year and finished the season strong. But to say they aren’t coming into this season with different preparations might be the wrong way to go about it. Everyone is choosing the Rebels to be in Atlanta at the end of the year contending for a SEC title. The schedule is lighter this year and if the Rebels can live up to expectations Houston Nutt should be hailed as one of the best coaches in college football.
OFFENSE
Last season Ole Miss had four starters back on the offensive line averaging 322 pounds. This line gave time to Jevan Snead and opened running holes. The Rebels averaged 186 yards rushing per game and the massive line gave up just 20 sacks all season. What really helped the Rebels was thier strongest quarterback play since Eli Manning. Jevan Snead, a transfer from Texas threw for 2,762 yards and 26 touchdowns. His play has put him on Heisman watch and has the Rebels primed to take a run in the SEC and the National title. However, the Rebels must an two star lineman. If the replacements can do half as well as last years, the Running Rebel formation should thrive. The receiving corps return their 2, 3, and 4 leading receivers from a year ago and their Running Rebel formation player Dexter McCluster.
DEFENSE
Last season the Rebels defense stepped up big but no position stepped up more than the line backing corps. With seven players with solid experience the Rebels held opponents to just 86 rushing yards per game and an average of just 2.7 yards per carry. With 8 returners on defense the Rebels look to match or better their mark this year. The key to the defensive side of the ball will be senior free safety Kendrick Lewis. Lewis led the team with 86 tackles and 4 interceptions last season. Along with Lewis in the defensive backfield, both corners who combined for another 5 interceptions last year.
SEASONAL PREDICTION
Entering the season, Ole Miss is the SEC West favorite. They finished the season strong taking down LSU in Baton Rouge and embarrassed Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. This year the heat will be on the Rebels to perform to expectations. They host Alabama and LSU and face East opponents South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee. The Rebels don’t even face Alabama until mid October and have big games followed by non-SEC games. But the hype machine will be too large for the Mississippi Rebels to handle. They should improve on their 9-4 mark but fall short of the SEC West title game.
10-2

Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama Crimson Tide

It might have happened a year earlier than everyone thought but Coach Nick Saban has put Alabama back in the discussion as a national powerhouse. Last year seemed to be a dream year. The lines were huge (averaging over 300 lbs), they had an experienced senior quarterback John Parker Wilson that ended up breaking Alabama’s passing records, and a solid senior running back. Saban’s squad by record appeared quite dominating, however this year will be a true test as they replace 2 All American’s on the offensive line, their starting running back and starting quarterback. If Saban is a good of a recruiter as ticketed, all should go well in Tuscaloosa.

OFFENSE

Last year Alabama was dominant up front. They were led by two 300+ pounders at the tackle positions that paved the way for the running game and gave John Parker Wilson the time needed to get the ball down the field efficiently. The Tide averaged 30.1 points a game last season. After the graduation of Wilson, the Tide are throwing an inexperienced junior Greg McElroy (8-11 for 123) into the fire to lead the Alabama offense. McElroy should be helped by sophomore standout Julio Jones who led the team in 924 receiving yards last season. Jones is a huge target that can stretch the field for the Crimson Tide. The running back situation appeared ready for Glen Coffee’s departure as the backfield is more experienced than last year. Sophomore Mark Ingram should get the bulk of the carries but look for a solid rotation of 2-3 backs. The line once again will be staunch but will take a step back due to the loss of two All Americans at tackle and guard.

DEFENSE

The Tide’s strong point last year was the defensive side of the ball. Entering last season it was the defense with all the question marks. They returned only 5 players, however this unit grew up in a hurry. At season’s end they were the 2nd best defense in all college football and held teams to just 74 rushing yards a game. Just as on offense the defense will be led by a heavy line. In the offseason, Terrence Cody (6 ‘5, 365) nose guard decided to stay one more year in Tuscaloosa. With Cody’s return the Tide appear ready once again to be one of the top defensive units in college football.

SEASONAL PREDICTIONS

Hopes run high in Alabama every year and sometimes expectations far to lofty. This year however, the expectations are a reality. Nick Saban continues to recruit the some of the top classes and has great depth at every position. Alabama is here to stay in the national discussion for title contender for years to come. However last year was a year sooner than everyone thought. The Tide did go unbeaten in the regular season but following the beat down in Athens (41-30 W), the Tide played not to lose defeating Kentucky by only 3 and a rebuilding LSU in overtime. The close wins could have easily went the other way but with senior leadership at the quarterback position the Tide were able to roll through the SEC and make it to the Sugar Bowl. In the Sugar Bowl the Tide were exposed by Utah. With the suspension of All American tackle Andre Smith, the Tide rushed for just 31 yards and were sacked a total of 8 times. This year’s task is to replace Smith AND Caldwell (another offensive line leader). It’s too much for a new quarterback to have to battle with. Bama could open the season with a non-conference loss to Virginia Tech. Look for a few blemishes on their record and a Non-BCS bowl.

9-3

Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas Razorbacks
Last year a new coach and having to replace Darren Mcfadden hurt the Razorbacks deeply last year. Entering the season, I figured Arkansas would end DEAD LAST in the west and they were near the bottom of the conference. This year however, should be a little better. The Razorbacks played so many true freshman and underclassmen that they are one of the MOST experienced SEC units. They return 18 starters from last year and 10 on defense. Bobby Petrino is a winner and should be able to take the Razorbacks back to a bowl game after such a step back last year.

OFFENSE-

Replacing senior quarterback Casey Dick for sophomore Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett should give the Razorbacks an ability to throw farther down the field. Head Coach Bobby Petrino told everyone on SEC Media day that “If we can run the ball better and run the ball more consistently, it should open up our deep passing game and our ability to get the ball down the field.” It wasn’t too hard to replace Darren Mcfadden at the beginning of the year as replacement Michael Smith rushed for 987 yards in Arkansas first 8 games. But being a small back in the SEC caused him to miss time with injuries. The Razorbacks truly struggled with rushing because of such an inexperienced line. The line gave up 46 sacks last year, second most in FBS. This year the Razorbacks return 5 players with starting experience and four players with at least 10 starts. A key to the passing game this season will be junior tight end D.J Williams. Williams was voted first team All-SEC last year and broke the record for catches by a tightend at Arkansas last year. Williams should be a crucial piece to the offense as should the receiving core that has much more experience than a year ago.

DEFENSE

What is impressive for the Razorbacks this year---10 returning on defense. Lookout for the D-Line as four of their top 10 tacklers from last season were defensive lineman and the ALL return next year the linebackers and corners are also much more experienced and should be overall a much more cohesive unit.

SEASONAL PREDICTION

Last year was brutal for the Razorbacks. Having a new coach was difficult, having to replace their star player was even tougher but both of those things were nothing compared to the gauntlet of a schedule the Razorbacks were forced to go through. Following an embarrassing defeat at home to Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas hosted #9 Alabama, traveled to #7 Texas, and #12 Florida. Those three games left the Razorbacks out of steam, injured, and questioning their season…IT WAS JUST THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. The rest of the season a MASH unit was forced into action and they struggled throughout. But to end the season, Arkansas did beat their rival LSU and gave hope for this season. Coming into the season Arkansas is one of the MOST experienced SEC teams. They still travel to Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and LSU face Georgia at home but those games are cushioned by winnable games. Look for Arkansas to be MUCH improved and make a bowl game this year.

7-5

Auburn Tigers

Auburn Tigers.

My DARK HORSE of ALL DARK HORSES LAST YEAR. I thought that the Tigers were finally going to put an offense on the field and be a complete team with new offensive coordinator and pre-season Alabama God Tony Franklin. However the Chic-Fil-A overtime victory which displayed such offensive prowess at the end of the 2007 campaign showed signs early in the 2008 season but faded quickly as they faced SEC caliber defenses. Some might point to the struggles beginning for the Tigers at home against the defending national champion LSU Tigers. With the lead at the end of the game, a FRESHMAN QUARTERBACK led the Bayou Bengals to take down the Auburn Tigers and leave a feeling of uncertainty within the team. However, I feel the downfall occurred the week before. At Mississippi State the Auburn Tigers were abysmal. Unable to take advantage of any Bulldog miscues the Tigers offense continued shooting the selves in the foot and just squeaked out with a rugged 3-2 victory. Such a small margin for victory showed their next opponent (LSU) how to beat an Auburn team which was trying to run the spread offense without the right personnel to do so. Following the loss to LSU, the Tigers beat a offensively anemic Tennessee team and then went on a 4 game losing streak to strip the Tigers of any chances of doing anything spectacular in the 2008 season. The last straw for the Tigers was a humiliating defeat to the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide 34-0. Football is taken very seriously in Alabama and although Tommy Tubberville had led the Tigers to an undefeated mark, won a few SEC West titles, that one loss and one bad season cost him his job. Now with a new coach the Tigers look to rebound back to typical Tiger form---defense, defense, defense…..however, it may take some time.

OFFENSE
At the SEC media day in July new head coach Gene Chizik was asked if he has the players to run his style of offense and defense. His answer,” You know, there's a fine line in there between putting in exactly what you would like to do on offense and defense and, you know, trying to adapt and adjust to the talent and the skill level that you have. And I think that's what really defines a great coach.” So, to read between the lines, NO! he doesn’t have the people in Auburn this year to run the offense and defense. Chizik will need to rely on a upper class his upper class back field for leadership. Entering the season junior Kodi Burns will be at the helm at quarterback. Burns threw for just 1,050 yards last season with 2 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He was sharing time with Chris Todd who is out for the coming season with an injury. What should help Burns is a “back to basics” Auburn offense. Nothing flashy, just cut-throat pound it football. The Tigers will rely on senior running back Ben Tate to control clock and give Auburn the an attitude they lost last season. Entering the season Tate is helped by an offensive line that has tons of experience. The receiver position is typical for Auburn this year as they have no real standouts but should better than last year their top three receivers and tight end are upper classmen.

Defense
Auburn is known for defense. Last year Tommy Tubberville attempted to change the offense schematically to create a dominated multi-faceted team. But this didn’t work; the offense struggled mightily and forced the defense to be on the field so much that they were bound to make mistakes. Last year’s defensive line was inexperienced and can only get better. Last year they allowed 4.1 yards per carry. This year those rushing totals should decrease due to an upper class line that is riddled with experience. The line backing core isn’t a traditional “hit them in your mouth” styled backers. They replace their Will backer with sophomore Eltoro Freeman and lack size, Together the linebacker average 229 pounds which is undersized for a school which prides themselves on power backers. The corners will be much improved from last year and should be the highlight for the Tigers. Auburn returns all their starters from last year and should shut down the top passing teams in the conference.

SEASON PREDICTION
With an easy early sleight the Tigers have an ability to start the season 4-0 heading into Knoxville. However, the West looks very tough this year and that is where the Tigers will struggle. After Tennessee, they must travel to Arkansas, host Kentucky and travel to Baton Rouge and then host Mississippi. I have them losing 4of 5 down that stretch. After a break (Furman), the Tigers face Georgia in Athens and finish the season against Alabama, another two losses. Due to the hot start, Auburn should finish the season bowl eligible in Gene Chizik’s first season but the fans will not be satisfied with fifth place in the West and another loss to the Tide.

6-6

Mississippi State Bulldogs

In 2007 things started to look very good for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. They defeated Auburn in Auburn, a ranked Kentucky team on the road, Alabama at home and had their first bowl victory in 7 years! Hopes were so high in Starkville that at the 2008 media day Sylvester Croom pronounced his team’s expectations- an SEC West Crown….the season started rocky as the Bulldogs were troubled by inconsistent quarterback play and finished the season being humiliated so badly by their rival the Ole Miss Rebels (45-0) that Sylvester Croom quickly resigned following the defeat.
The 2008 Bulldogs were full of young talent and one of my DARK HORSE teams. They had a do-able schedule and seemed ready to turn the corner, but they failed to meet expectations. One of the most experienced teams in the SEC last year is now the most inexperienced with only 10 starters returning.

OFFENSE
The Bulldog offensive success will hinge on senior running back Anthony Dixon. Going into the 2008 season, it appeared that Dixon was prepared to rule the SEC. But injuries to the line and a nonexistent passing game hindered his ability to be a game changer. What is working in Dixon’s favor this year is that the offensive line returns six players with starting experience and four players that were every-game starters. The line should be better and be able to open some holes; however a HUGE problem for this team is their quarterback play. Tyson Lee struggled mightily last year throwing for just 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Lee shared time with sophomore (who is now gone) Wesley Carrol because neither quarterback could formulate a way to get the ball down the field and into the end zone. Lee will not have much to work with receiving wise as 2 of his three major targets are under classmen.

DEFENSE
During Sylvester Croom’s tenure at Mississippi State the defense was transformed into a very formidable opponent. However last year’s lack of offensive production caused the defense to be on the field too long and eventually gave up the plays to lose games. This year’s defensive unit will struggle mightily. They only return 4 starters on a unit which gave up more than 328 yards a game and an average of 24 points.

SEASON PROJECTION-
New coach, no belief in the quarterback, and the least returners in all the SEC all combine to make the 2009 season treacherous for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Florida’s old offensive coordinator and Mississippi State’s new head man should turn things around in Starkville but it WILL take time. Until then, the Bulldogs will struggle. Mississippi State goes to Auburn the second week of the season followed by a visit to a turned around Vanderbilt. They also must face LSU, Alabama, Florida, and Ole Miss(ALL TEAMS THAT CAN REACH A BCS GAME). The SEC is a gauntlet and the Bulldogs will be overmatched and outnumbered.

2-10 LAST IN THE SEC WEST